Method
How PitchEdge prices a match.
Five years of Premier League (and Championship for the two promoted sides without a PL sample), last-five form, the summer window, and a manager overlay. Then we hunt value against the book.
- 01
Attack × defence lambdas
Home expected goals is home attack blended with last-five, times away defence, centred on the league average (1.45). Same for the away side. Promoted clubs are Championship-scaled (attack 0.68, defence 1.42) so Coventry at the Emirates is not treated as a PL side.
- 02
Form blend · 38% last five
Season-long home/away splits stay the spine. The last five matches pull the rate toward current finishing and chance prevention so a cold or hot streak actually moves the number. After each matchweek this last-five is rewritten from official results.
- 03
Phantomed transfers · Summer 2026 · closes 1 Sep
The 5-year sample does not know Bruno Guimarães is at Arsenal or that Salah has left Liverpool. Every club gets an attack / xGA multiplier from the summer window — applied after form, before the manager — so the new XI is in the price before a ball is kicked.
- 04
Phantomed managers
A new appointment does not inherit the old club's 5-year fingerprint blindly. We keep the team baseline and overlay the manager's previous-club style — high press, possession, low block — at a weight that reflects how long they have been in the job. Jaissle at Newcastle sits at 35%. Arteta is nearly full weight.
- 05
Poisson + Dixon–Coles
Independent Poisson scorelines, then a light Dixon–Coles ρ ≈ 0.08 on 0–0 / 1–0 / 0–1 / 1–1 so low-score dependence is not ignored. First-half share is 45%. Corners and yellows are independent count models on the same form blend. 1-up is the first-goal race. Never-down is the ballot theorem on never trailing — a different market.
- 06
Value layer
Implied probability is 1 / decimal odds. Edge is modelP − implied. EV is modelP × odds − 1. A market is stamped value only when edge ≥ 4% and EV clears 3%.
After every matchweek
You do not paste results. football-data updates the 2026-27 file after each round (usually Monday). Open Games — if the last pull is older than 36 hours, PitchEdge fetches that file, rewrites last-five and last-ten for all 20 clubs, and every lambda on the slate moves. Tap Update week if you want it now. Until GW1 is played the 2026-27 file is empty, so last-five is 2025-26 (Championship for Coventry, Hull, Ipswich).
Form updates itself after each matchweek.
Walk-forward · 2025-26
Top-market calls on last season, locked before kick-off in the replay. Not a live hit-rate, and not a promise for August.
- Top market
- 69/100
- Over 9.5 corners
- 73%
- Clubs
- 20